1. Unification of Anti-BJP Vote Bank - A closer look into party-wise vote percentage
and comparing it vis-a-vis 2013 Delhi Assembly elections will clearly
explain that the BJP's vote share has only declined by 1% or less while
AAP's has increased from 30% to close to 55%. The reason being majority
of the loyal Congress voters decided to vote for AAP instead as it was
the force to reckon with if they are to keep the BJP at bay since
Congress was already marginalized pan India. Here are stats to prove the
above point : In the 2013 elections Congress Vote share was 25% which
decline this time to a meager 9%, all the 16% went to AAP which in the
previous elections held 30% vote share. This support from the congress
vote bank took AAP to a massive 46% percent which is in itself enough to
gain them the Majority in the house. However, the tsunami that AAP
proved itself to be in the 2015 Assembly Election for the NCT of Delhi
was created from the other 9% of the votes that came to the AAP from the
voters of other parties such as INLD, BSP, Independents, etc. The Vote
share of 'Others'
was reduced to 1.8% from 12% of the last elections. This cross voting
of the voters was again due to the same reason as of congress' voters -
'Nobody wants their vote to be wasted'. However it is to be noted that a
minor fraction of BJP's voters themselves voted for AAP which may be
due to some of the below reasons. (BJP got 33% vote share in 2013 while
in 2015 it got 32%)
2. Infighting in BJP state leadership or the KIRAN effect - It is pretty well known that elections are not won just by the leaders or false promises (exceptions are always there), elections are won by the KARYAKARTAS. Bringing Kiran Bedi as the CM candidate in the 11th hour by the BJP NAtional Leadership is one of the main causes of its defeat in the National Capital as it sparked infighting among the state leadership who were hoping to finally get their chance to bask in the glory of power, however Kiran towed their aspirations for wrong parking. This resulted in lesser involvement of the ground level booth managers of the party as their loyalties lie with their true masters, the actual state leaders. There were coups to defeat BJPs CM candidate from the BJP fortress itself and they succeeded too.
3. Not making Harshvardhan the CM Candidate - Delhi loves him. He is sincere, ground to earth, accessible and HONEST. There was no possible reason than mere EGO of our PM and Mr. Shah in not making him the CM candidate yet again. He has proved his mettle time and again for the party and is also accepted by the state leadership open arms. Karyakartas love him and would have given their 100% in converting votes for him.
4. Unrealistic Dreamy Promises by AAP - To me it looks like AAP did not think they will win, hence they promised the moon and beyond to the Delhi voters, like they did in last elections. While the BJP was over confident of a Modi wave yet again and didn't want a foot-in-mouth situation by making any promises they could not fulfill and released a so called 'Vision Document' very late in the day. And as the kind of people we are 'FREE' is all we want, we may not want to pay our taxes honestly, but we want free electricity, free water, free wifi and everything that could come free. We as Indians are so dreamy eyed that any BABA, TELESHOPPING PEOPLE, ASTROLOGER or POLITICIAN can sell us anything. I am just curious how will AAP fulfill the promises they made.
Take a look at these figures - AAP promised atleast a school and sports complex in each constituency, however there are no land available inside the city, even the supreme court had ruled that even DDA can't take any of the existing land for their housing schemes. The only land that is available are on the outskirts of outer delhi but then AAP opposes the Land Aquisition Bill.
The State Budget is 40000 crores of which nearly 37ooo crores is to be spent on existing fixed expenditure such as employee salaries, Transportation, Allotment to MCDs and NDMC, existing power subsidies, Jal Board, State schemes etc. Now in the remaining 3000 crores the govt. has to initiate plans worth rs. 30,000 crores.
Unrealistic?? Dreamy??
5. Instead of letting Delhi know what the Modi Govt. has achieved so far BJP stressed on mud slinging on Kejriwal - Modi Govt. has achieved more than any recent govts. in the given time frame. For which they could have taken some credit by boasting about it and letting the people of Delhi know that the same would be done for Delhi as well on the state level, however as arrogant as the BJP proved itself to be they thought calling Kejriwal names and slinging mud on him would get them votes. The Voters of Delhi atleast are smarter than that and the BJP would have known it by now.
2. Infighting in BJP state leadership or the KIRAN effect - It is pretty well known that elections are not won just by the leaders or false promises (exceptions are always there), elections are won by the KARYAKARTAS. Bringing Kiran Bedi as the CM candidate in the 11th hour by the BJP NAtional Leadership is one of the main causes of its defeat in the National Capital as it sparked infighting among the state leadership who were hoping to finally get their chance to bask in the glory of power, however Kiran towed their aspirations for wrong parking. This resulted in lesser involvement of the ground level booth managers of the party as their loyalties lie with their true masters, the actual state leaders. There were coups to defeat BJPs CM candidate from the BJP fortress itself and they succeeded too.
3. Not making Harshvardhan the CM Candidate - Delhi loves him. He is sincere, ground to earth, accessible and HONEST. There was no possible reason than mere EGO of our PM and Mr. Shah in not making him the CM candidate yet again. He has proved his mettle time and again for the party and is also accepted by the state leadership open arms. Karyakartas love him and would have given their 100% in converting votes for him.
4. Unrealistic Dreamy Promises by AAP - To me it looks like AAP did not think they will win, hence they promised the moon and beyond to the Delhi voters, like they did in last elections. While the BJP was over confident of a Modi wave yet again and didn't want a foot-in-mouth situation by making any promises they could not fulfill and released a so called 'Vision Document' very late in the day. And as the kind of people we are 'FREE' is all we want, we may not want to pay our taxes honestly, but we want free electricity, free water, free wifi and everything that could come free. We as Indians are so dreamy eyed that any BABA, TELESHOPPING PEOPLE, ASTROLOGER or POLITICIAN can sell us anything. I am just curious how will AAP fulfill the promises they made.
Take a look at these figures - AAP promised atleast a school and sports complex in each constituency, however there are no land available inside the city, even the supreme court had ruled that even DDA can't take any of the existing land for their housing schemes. The only land that is available are on the outskirts of outer delhi but then AAP opposes the Land Aquisition Bill.
The State Budget is 40000 crores of which nearly 37ooo crores is to be spent on existing fixed expenditure such as employee salaries, Transportation, Allotment to MCDs and NDMC, existing power subsidies, Jal Board, State schemes etc. Now in the remaining 3000 crores the govt. has to initiate plans worth rs. 30,000 crores.
Unrealistic?? Dreamy??
5. Instead of letting Delhi know what the Modi Govt. has achieved so far BJP stressed on mud slinging on Kejriwal - Modi Govt. has achieved more than any recent govts. in the given time frame. For which they could have taken some credit by boasting about it and letting the people of Delhi know that the same would be done for Delhi as well on the state level, however as arrogant as the BJP proved itself to be they thought calling Kejriwal names and slinging mud on him would get them votes. The Voters of Delhi atleast are smarter than that and the BJP would have known it by now.
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